2026 Women's Olympiad Preview

Chess doesn’t have many tournaments that are prestigious essentially no matter who participates, but fortunately the Olympiad is one of them. The 46th edition of the Chess Olympiad and the 31st edition of the Women’s Chess Olympiad kick off on Wednesday. India are the defending champions for the first time in both sections, and they’ll be eager to defend their titles as one of the big favourites for each gold once again.

Uzbekistan will be the first country from Central Asia to host the Olympiad, and with good reason. They took gold in the open section four years ago in India, and will send Javokhir Sindarov to play for the World Championship title in November. The women aren’t so far behind. 17-year-old IM-elect Afruza Khamdamova is unequivocally one of the Top 5 junior girls in the world, and much of the rest of Uzbekistan’s A, B, and C teams are a who’s who of scary underrated kids.

There is no prize money in the Olympiad. But if India or Uzbekistan win, they will surely be bestowed with big prizes from their own government in an effort to boost the image of chess in their countries. Trying to stop them, there won’t be as many contenders as usual. Russia once again has to sit out amidst their war in Ukraine, while in the women’s section specifically, China is once again only sending one of their Big 4 GMs.

The field

Just 14 of the Top 25 players in the rankings I released last week are going to be participating. By FIDE rating, three of the Top 10 (Zhu Jiner, Bibisara Assaubayeva, and Humpy Koneru) are in the field. That’s actually better than last time, when just one of the FIDE Top 10 was playing.

Zhu Jiner won Board 1 individual gold in the 2024 Olympiad before she established herself as the best player in the world. Credit: Maria Emelianova / FIDE.

Even though a lot of top overall players are missing, most of the top juniors are here. If you asked me to name the 10 most interesting juniors right now, I would tell you (very roughly in order of current level): Alice Lee (USA), Anna Shukhman (FID), Afruza Khamdamova (UZB), Alua Nurman (KAZ), Lu Miaoyi (CHN), Eline Roebers (NED), Anastasiia Hnatyshyn (UKR), Bodhana Sivanandan (ENG), Oshini Gunawardhana (SRI), & Charvi A (IND) — where I named at most one per country. Eight out of those ten are here at the Olympiad, and all but one is on a top-two board.

Ranking the Top 5 seeds

Historically, the Top 5 seeds have dominated the medals and Top 5 places. Last time, that actually didn’t happen. India won as the top seed, but the other four Top 5 seeds finished 6th through 9th. That could have been because of Russia and China’s complete or partial absences, but in case it was just a fluke, let’s break down the chances of the Top 5 seeds in order of how much chances I think they have.

• No. 1 seed India goes three-deep, with their three GMs Humpy, Vaishali, & Divya in that board order. Three of the five players return from their gold medal team. Swapping Harika for Humpy should be an upgrade, while trading Tania Sachdev for young Savitha Shri puts a more active player in the lineup. In the last Olympiad, India’s key players were actually their lower boards: Divya on Board 3 and Vantika Agrawal on Board 4. India is keeping those two on Boards 3 and 4 (even with Divya higher rated than Vaishali). If India want to defend their title, I expect it will come down to those boards again.

India is ready to defend both gold medals. Credit: ChessBase India.

• No. 5 seed United States also go three-deep, with IM Carissa Yip, IM Alice Lee, and even veteran GM Irina Krush all in peak form. The United States got bronze at the last Olympiad, but their lineup now is quite different. Begim Tokhirjonova, their Board 1 last time, transferred back to her home country Uzbekistan. Carissa and Alice shouldered most of the responsibility in 2024 with individual gold and silver on Boards 2 and 4. Now they’ll have to do the same on Boards 1 and 2.
• No. 3 seed Kazakhstan go just one-deep with GM Bibisara Assaubayeva as their only real reliable player. That said, it was the same situation at the last Olympiad and they still delivered the silver as the No. 10 seed (which was no surprise if you read my ‘24 Olympiad preview). Kazakhstan bring back three players from that then-all-junior team. The other two spots instead automatically go to their most recent women’s national champions: the even younger 16-year-olds Elnaz Kaliakhmet & Zarina Nurgaliyeva. Alua Nurman, much like Alice Lee, is the ’24 Olympiad star who moves up from Board 4 to Board 2. Xeniya Balabayeva was their other big star in ’24, but someone else will need to fill her role now that she didn’t make the team. It could be done by Bibisara, who was very good in 2024 but could have been even better.

The scariest chess team imaginable. Credit: Bibisara Assaubayeva.

• No. 4 seed China go two-deep with GM Zhu Jiner and IM Song Yuxin. I expected it to be three-deep, but China’s top prodigy Lu Miaoyi has not had a good past few months. Still, you would have to be a fool to underestimate China. Zhu Jiner is still Zhu Jiner. The only good part about most of China’s GMs sitting out is Song Yuxin gets the chance to make a name for herself on a higher board. Even Miaoyi gets to play a higher board as well. Last time, she was only on Board 5, but did medal.
• No. 2 seed Georgia go four-deep as the only team with four 2400s. That being said, they’re also the oldest team by far. The youngest player on their main boards is 38 years old. It was a similar story at the last Olympiad, where they were also the No. 2 seeds, but didn’t medal. Georgia is the most historic country in women’s chess history, but they’ll need to do a lot to show chess isn’t just a young person’s game.

Other teams to watch

• The only other team with a whole lineup of threatening players is actually the hosts, the No. 13 seed Uzbekistan. This is what Begim returned to her home country for, while Afruza gets the chance to make a name for herself on Board 1. The rest of the team, like Afruza, is all young players. A few months ago, I was leaning towards saying Uzbekistan would be this Olympiad’s Kazakhstan, but at least compared to Kazakhstan in 2024, I would say the form of the players on the lower three boards has been a bit too questionable for that.

The host team (pictured above, except for Umida Omonova) is dangerous. Credit: Uzbekistan Chess Federation.

• The most balanced teams outside of the favourites are the No. 7, 8, & 9 seeds: Azerbaijan, France, and Poland. Azerbaijan must have the best camaraderie as they have had the same national team for a long time. Now all five are IMs (or IM-elect), and Ulviyya Fataliyeva on Board 1 has had a stellar year (except for her most recent tournament). Poland is one Alina Kashlinskaya away from being a real threat, but she had to skip this time with a new member of the family incoming. France, like Georgia, looks good on paper, but is just too old.
• If No. 6 seed Ukraine surprise in the end, count me among the surprised. I don’t expect much without the Muzychuk sisters or even their ’24 Board 1 Yuliia Osmak.

Other players to watch

• The race for Board 1 gold could be quite interesting. World No. 1 Zhu Jiner (CHN) is back to defend her medal. Lots of teams have strong Board 1s even if their whole team isn’t so good. That includes established players like IM Stavroula Tsolakidou (GRE), IM Nurgyul Salimova (BUL), IM Teodora Injac (SRB), and of course GM Alexandra Kosteniuk (SUI). It also includes top juniors I mentioned earlier like IM Eline Roebers (NED), FM Bodhana Sivanandan (ENG), and WIM Oshini Gunawardhana (SRI).
• Chess legend GM Pia Cramling (SWE) is playing the Olympiad for the 15th time, of course together with Anna. GM Peng Zhaoqin (NED) has played even more. This will be her 18th Olympiad appearance, and she only just returned to OTB play for the first time since the previous Olympiad.
• Africa’s top prodigy 14-year-old WFM Deborah Quickpen (NGR) gets a rare opportunity to test herself against the world. A really good performance could see the Nigerian break the African women’s rating record (2224, set by Egypt’s WGM Mona Khaled).
• Bat-Erdene Mungunzul (MGL) would get the IM title if she makes an IM norm. Mariam Mkrtchyan (ARM) would get the IM title if she makes an IM norm and crosses 2400.

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Last time, I predicted India (gold), China (silver), and Kazakhstan (bronze) for the medals and got two right (one exact). I’ll make that exact same prediction once again.

The Olympiad starts with Round 1 on Wednesday at 3pm (Uzbek time) / 12pm (CEST) / 6am (US EDT). You don’t want to miss it!

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